Policy Brief

Recalculating Routes: Navigating Rising Protectionism and Supply Chain Disruptions?

Comprising 85% of global Gross Domestic Product, 75% of international trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population, the G20 stands as a potent platform for discussing trade cooperation and interdependence. However, over the past decade, major economies have increasingly invoked the ‘national security’ argument to justify protectionist policies. This trend, aligned with a globalisation backlash, geopolitical uncertainty, international institutional dysfunction, and rising nationalism, has reshaped the global trade landscape. As a result, tariffs and trade restrictions have emerged at the epicentre of global economic discussions. They have disrupted supply chains, heightened trade tensions, and disproportionately impacted developing economies, making global value chains less resilient.

This policy brief examines recommendations for G20 countries to enhance trade stability and supply chain resilience. It emphasises the need for coordinated action to mitigate risks, promote trade diversification, and strengthen South–South integration. Additionally, it analyses how green protectionism, climate-related trade measures, and colonial patterns in green technology supply chains may further marginalise the Global South.

16 Oct 2025

Task Force

Keywords

emerging economiesgreen protectionismSupply Chainstrade policy

Author/s

José Ricardo de Oliveira Araujo
Researcher,
Conjecture Assessment Group associated with Brazilian Naval War College
(Brazil)
Leonardo David Silva dos Santos
Researcher,
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
(Brazil)
Pedro Kauã Amaro Itamares
Researcher,
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
(Brazil)
Potira Nasser Poses
Researcher and Project Consultant,
State University of Rio de Janeiro, International Youth Watch
(Brazil)
Valentina Paulino Valcarce
Researcher,
Northwestern University
(United States)