Background and context: Potential security risks caused by energy transitions 

G20 countries are adjusting the speed of their energy transition, owing to concerns that excessively rapid energy transitions, coupled with intensifying climate change impacts, pose significant global challenges to social, economic and environmental security. Conversely, a slight slowdown could be an opportunity to buy time to achieve a fair energy transition. The G20 countries urgently need to prioritise just and inclusive energy transition policies that ensure energy security, affordability, accessibility, resilience, market stability and economic prosperity. While climate actions and just energy transitions are important, existing policy frameworks remain insufficient in addressing the associated risks. The G20, representing the Global North and South, holds a critical responsibility and capability to lead global initiatives that mitigate potential security concerns. 

The concept of a ‘just transition’, initially focused on labour, has evolved to emphasise the engagement and protection of vulnerable populations and communities affected by climate actions. This broadened understanding particularly became evident after COP26, and is reflected in the Just Transition Work Programme, situated within the UNFCCC. This programme is meant to address issues related to transitions, including energy, socio-economic, workforce and other dimensions. The G20 Brazilian presidency last year furthered this progress by adopting the Principles for Just and Inclusive Energy Transitions and launching the Just and Inclusive Energy Transition Compact, driving localised actions with adequate social protection. The emerging consensus in the negotiations and the G20 points to engaging and protecting affected people and communities. 

Lack of attention to security concerns, especially in Asia and the Pacific region 

Against this background, we argue that an understanding of the climate change–security nexus is essential to realise just and inclusive energy transitions towards net-zero emissions. This necessitates a shift beyond traditional security approaches, recognising climate change as a threat multiplier, addressing the disproportionate vulnerabilities of affected populations and prioritising human security and societal well-being. Framing issues through a security lens can drive prioritisation and better resource allocation. The just transition should be used and developed into a policy process to address the potential risks to human security, social stability and cohesion caused by energy transitions. This aspect remains under-recognised in UNFCCC negotiations and G20 initiatives.  

Each region faces unique vulnerabilities that, when combined with rapid social transformation owing to the energy transition, may trigger security concerns. The Asia-Pacific region, with a significant G20 presence, exemplifies this. Recent assessments have analysed climate-related security risks in South-East Asia and the Pacific, but more needs to be done across Asia and in individual Pacific countries. Distinct vulnerabilities – including remoteness, population densities, low-lying islands, frequent disasters and melting Himalayan glaciers – all contribute to diverse and context-dependent security risks. Furthermore, increased demand for critical minerals owing to energy transitions, as seen in Indonesia, for instance, introduces multifaceted regional security issues. These issues include threats to regional cohesion, heightened geopolitical competition, economic security dilemmas, and environmental and social instabilities affecting human security. Such risk factors, however, are not well recognised and assessed within the current policy framework for energy transition.

Recommendations 

Several steps are needed to incorporate these aspects into policy frameworks, programmes and projects for a just and inclusive energy transition.  

Broaden the security perspective: G20 countries should move beyond traditional security perspectives to embrace a broader concept that recognises the complex interplay between climate change and regional stability. This includes fostering cooperation on actions leading to net-zero societies. Adopting this concept of security will promote cooperation among countries in the context of climate change and strengthen solidarity between the Global North and South in this regard. A noteworthy example is the Pacific region, which has identified climate change as its single greatest threat and is implementing a comprehensive approach.  

Enhance multilateral cooperation: G20 countries should prioritise establishing more just energy transition partnerships that take into account local security risks imposed by worsening climate change. Building on the effective collaborations seen in South Africa and Indonesia, future partnerships should be designed with deeper appreciation of potential local security risks to protect social cohesion, stability and human security. With its strong normative and implementation power, the G20 can align the priorities of the industrialised Global North with those of the resource-rich Global South for mutually beneficial strategies and holistic transition plans.  

Strengthen research and knowledge sharing: The G20 countries should support research on climate-related security risks to bridge the critical knowledge gap. While such risks have been discussed in Africa and the Middle East, similar assessments are lacking across Asia. The G20 can facilitate research partnerships, information-sharing platforms and capacity-building initiatives among member states. Implementing these recommendations can ensure that just energy transitions are not only environmentally sustainable and inclusive but also socially and politically secure.