The urgent need to accelerate the global energy transition, vital for achieving climate goals, will significantly increase demand for a range of ‘critical’ minerals. For example, by 2040, lithium demand is projected to grow nearly ninefold, driven by expanding EV battery production, while graphite demand – key for battery anodes – is expected to nearly quadruple. Copper consumption is also poised to nearly double, due to its critical role in electrical conductivity.

As demand rises, new economic opportunities emerge for resource–rich countries in the Global South. However, there is a risk of missing the window of opportunity to develop production and technological capabilities. The high global demand for minerals, within a context of asymmetric relationships between countries specialised in mining activities and those with consolidated positions in downstream segments of the value chain, as well as with end-user countries, pushes the former ones to export raw materials with low value–added processing.

Many Global South countries have sought to move beyond extractivism by developing production linkages with mining activity – whether backward, forward, or sidestream. While there have been some notable successes, most mineral–rich countries in the Global South continue to face significant obstacles. These include limited technological capabilities, the absence of close large–scale electromobility markets, high concentration in the more advanced segments of the value chain, restrictive trade barriers in key export destinations, and the predominance of foreign capital ownership.

This policy brief proposes measures to advance just transition–aligned critical mineral value chains through international cooperation oriented towards developing production and technological capabilities in resource-rich countries of the Global South. In particular, we suggest: (i) adopting shared principles and standards for mineral value chain governance; (ii) establishing a roadmap for technology collaboration and R&D cooperation; (iii) and calling for action to address trade barriers limiting value addition in Global South, supply–side countries. These recommendations prioritise supporting Global South efforts and global stability, benefitting both resource–rich and mineral–demanding countries. Fostering production and technological capabilities in resource– rich countries is in the interest of diverse G20 members as it contributes to the augmentation of global economic and political stability – core to the G20’s original mandate